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An Opinion on opinions

·2 mins
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Most ‘preferences’ we defend are not preferences. They are conclusions reached before exposure. We mistake unfamiliarity for dislike, speed for judgment, and narrative for experience.

Efficiency trap #

Premature opinions feel efficient because they collapse uncertainty quickly. They reduce cognitive load by replacing curiosity with closure.

A distinction has to be made about opinions that are ‘refined’ through experience: that is judgment. Judgment is expensive. It is earned through contact with reality: trial, error, and revision.

Opinions let us move fast. They create an illusion of clarity.

Lost futures #

The cost of forming opinions before exposure is in missed optionality.

  • You sample less, which means fewer chances to discover fit, leverage, or upside.
  • You miss second-order benefits from paths you never entered.
  • You spend energy defending identities you did not earn.

We do not pause-and-reflect because opinion is socially cheaper than exploration.

Imagination tax #

Social settings reward immediacy. Silence reads as ignorance, and hesitation reads as weakness. So we opine early. We inflate the cost it takes to actually gather reasonable amount of information or exposure to the thing. Some may find themselves filling those experience gaps with identity narratives: “I don’t do X”, “I prefer Y”.

In practice, it takes far less effort to learn ‘just enough’ about what is being asked of, and then build an opinion on it, or, to empathize with contrasting viewpoints of your peers about something.

We overestimate the cost of exposure, and underestimate the cost of guessing.

Experience collapses false complexity #

Many problems feel complex only from a distance. Once we engage with reality, simple constraints and real trade-offs are revealed. None of which are visible from imagination alone. Exposure builds experience; and experience invalidates shaky beliefs.

The takeaway (I think) is to have opinions, but treat them as debt. If you haven’t paid for one with exposure, curiosity, or effort; don’t carry it forward.

Default to gathering experience. Let judgment come later.